Venezuela's Maduro Declared Winner Amid Controversy, Opposition Cries Foul

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• Venezuela's Maduro Declared Winner Amid Controversy, Opposition Cries Foul

  There's lots of reasons to believe this election was stolen. First of all, the opposition in all polls before the election was ahead by 20 to 30 percentage points. So it would have been quite surprising if the election was close at all, let alone if the government managed to win. Beyond that, there are just lots of signs of classic manipulation of the vote count and of the observation process that I think lead all fair minded people to conclude, as the President of Chile concluded in the evening of the election, that it is, quote, hard to believe the government figures. 

  It's hard to imagine that the theft of this election, the dashing of hopes of millions of Venezuelans, won't be the straw that broke the camel's back, won't be the factor that pushes many more Venezuelans to leave. You have a country already that can't consistently feed its own people, provide basic services like health care, provide running water and electricity on a consistent basis.
  
  So things are very difficult in Venezuela. What had kept many Venezuelans there in recent years was the hope that eventually you could have a decent political transition and a return to democracy. Now that it appears those hopes are diminishing, it is likely that many more Venezuelans leave.
  
  The responses that we'll be watching in the coming hours, days and weeks will be the international community's reaction, whether these clearly fraudulent results are accepted and given any legitimacy in the region or outside, but also how the opposition mobilizes in its response.
  
  The opposition primary last October drew an extraordinary 2.4 million participants. The election attracted a very high turnout. Venezuelans are mobilized right now, very committed to political change. And now that the electoral route seems to have been pulled away as an option, it is possible that Venezuelans find alternative ways to express their frustration.
  
  The Venezuelan armed forces have been indoctrinated over decades.
  
  They've been given, at least at the elite level, access to lucrative contracts and to control major parts of the Venezuelan economy. So we suspect that they're quite loyal to the government. Just like the government, they've also been suspected to have engaged in all types of corruption, human rights abuses, drug trafficking. And so they have fear of a political transition that could subject them to the Venezuelan and international justice systems.
  
  That said, it is not at all clear that they will be willing to repress what could be significant protests in response to this fraud. And so it remains to be seen if the government can truly rely upon even the military elites to crush dissent in the coming days, weeks and months.